We do more tests per capita than anyone. They said the early cases were almost all from tourists coming from Italy and Austria. They lost track now and most new cases are marked as from unknown source. We only started seriously limiting interactions a week ago so if the 14 day average delay is true we should see things slow down in another 7 days assuming people are adhering to the rules which they were not at the start so that pushes the peak higher and further back. There's still a remote possibility for really shitty scenarios like countries that didn't respond early enough having the virus permanently endemic in the population. The medium post above that was censored for wrongthink had much more optimistic projections but focusing on the easy scenarios isn't as useful right now when cases are piling up.